Tuesday, June 7, 2011

New York Time: Bottom Near for Housing

For real estate, some economists say, an end to the seemingly endless decline in housing values might be in sight.
Few analysts expect housing prices to rebound anytime soon. But quite a few are predicting that the market is close to the moment when things will stop getting worse, which will be a major improvement all by itself. By far the bulk of the downturn of housing prices is beyond us, said Paul Dales of Capital Economics.

There are some amazingly favorable signs. Housing is the most undervalued it has been in 35 years, Mr. Dales said. At some point, its going to do very well.

Peter Muoio, senior principal of Maximus Advisors, says he thinks the market has already bottomed, although he expects it to bounce around in a narrow range for a few years rather than recovering. And James F. Smith, chief economist for the investment firm Parsec Financial and a rare housing bull, is predicting a 25 percent climb from here by mid-decade.

There is a lot of pent-up demand for housing and someday it will be unleashed, Mr. Smith said, adding: Your guess is as good as mine when it will come.

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