California house sales up, prices down

California home sales posted an increase both on a monthly and annual basis in November, marking the fifth consecutive month of year-to-year sales increases, according to figures released today from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.). Meanwhile, the statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home sold in California rose 1 percent compared with October, but declined 5.2 percent compared with a year earlier.

Making sense of the story

• Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California rose to a seasonally adjusted 503,570 units in November, up 2.1 percent from a revised 493,140 in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide.
  
  
• November home sales also were up 2.3 percent from the revised 492,040 units sold during the like period a year ago. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2011 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
  
• The November statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home sold in California was $280,960, up 1 percent from $278,060 in October but down 5.2 percent from the $296,480 median price recorded for November 2010.
  
• The Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes was 5 months in November, down from 5.3 months in October and down from a 6.2-month supply in November 2010. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.

Builder confidence rises for the third consecutive month

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes edged up two points to 21 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December. This marks a third consecutive month in which builder confidence has improved, and brings the index to its highest point since May 2010.
“This is the first time that builder confidence has improved for three consecutive months since mid-2009, which signifies a legitimate though slowly emerging upward trend,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “While large inventories of foreclosed properties continue to plague the most distressed markets and consumer worries about job security and the challenges of selling an existing home remain significant factors, builders are reporting more inquiries and more interest among potential buyers than they have seen in previous months.”

Each of the HMI’s three component indexes registered a third consecutive month of improvement in December. The component gauging current sales conditions rose two points to 22, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months edged up one point to 26. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers gained three points to 18, which is its highest level since May 2008.

New Home Sales Continue To Rise:

Investors cheered yet another U.S. report showing signs of improvement in the housing market.

The Commerce Department report showed US new home sales rose for the third straight month in row, increased by 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 315,000 from October.

Even as the pace of gain was smaller than 2.6% forecast by economists, investors took comfort in that housing data released in recent days have started to show stabilization, and given that the housing market is one of a major contributors to the economy, it could provide some support for the economic growth next year. New homes account for just a fraction of the housing market, but they have a big impact on the economy. Each new home built creates roughly three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in taxes, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Home bargains abound, but willing lenders are rare breed

Faced with finicky lenders, would-be home buyers are increasingly turning to family members, friends, and even strangers they meet online. While this is understandable, given the abundant bargains on the market, they also present significant risks.
Making sense of the story

• So-called peer-to-peer lending sites, such as Prosper and Lending Club, say demand for home-related financing is on the rise. In September, Weemba, a social-networking site, launched a platform to connect lenders directly with prospective home buyers and other borrowers.
  
  
• Despite historically low mortgage rates, traditional lenders remain reluctant to provide mortgages to anyone with less than stellar credit. And, in certain markets, lenders are requiring down payments of more than 20 percent of the home’s purchase price.
  
  
• Borrowers taking loans from family members – so-called intrafamily loans – save on interest since family members are likely to charge less than the banks. Additionally, parent lenders can earn a higher return from their child’s interest payments than they would on a certificate of deposit or money-market fund. Under federal law, on a loan of more than nine years, parents must charge at least roughly 2.8 percent, in most cases.
  
  
• Consumers who prefer to look for loans beyond the family can apply at peer-to-peer lending sites. If approved for a loan after a screening by the companies, applicants may then receive money from investors.
  
  
• However, these alternative routes to financing can be expensive for borrowers. Rates at Lending Club run from around 7 percent to 28 percent. At Prosper, rates run roughly 7 percent to 35 percent. The companies say these rates, which are fixed, are higher than traditional mortgage rates in part because their loans are unsecured.

Job Claims, Factory Data Suggest Recovery Picking Up Steam:

Government reports on weekly jobless claims, manufacturing activity and inflation offered fresh evidence the U.S. economic recovery is picking up steam. 
New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a 3 1/2 year low last week, a government report showed on Thursday, suggesting the labor market recovery was gaining speed. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000, the Labor Department said. That was the lowest level since May 2008.

A gauge of manufacturing in New York State showed growth accelerated in December to its highest level since May as new orders improved, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report on Thursday. The survey of manufacturing plants in the state is one of the earliest monthly guideposts to U.S. factory conditions. The gain in December added on to improvement last month that pulled the index out of a five-month contraction.

Wholesale prices rose a modest 0.3 percent last month, as companies paid more for such items as food and pharmaceuticals. But energy prices barely rose, keeping inflation in check.

Most economists say they think inflation has peaked and will slowly decline next year. That's because prices for oil and many agricultural commodities have fallen from their highs this spring. Slower growth in China and a possible recession in Europe have reduced global demand for energy and other goods.

Lower price growth means consumers will have more buying power, potentially boosting consumer spending. The jump in gas and food prices earlier this year limited the ability of consumers to buy other goods, thereby slowing the economy.

Consumer spending rebounded in the July-September quarter as prices eased. The stronger spending helped increase growth to an annual rate of 2 percent from a slight 0.9 percent in the first half of the year. Economists expect consumer spending to rise again in the last three months of this year and think growth could top 3 percent. Federal Reserve policymakers, like many private economists, predict inflation will fall next year. That would give the central bank more latitude to hold down interest rates and potentially take other steps to stimulate the economy.

Tame inflation, improved manufacturing, increased consumer demand and super-low mortgage rates all add up to big positives for the housing market.

Consumer concerns stabilize in November

Home price expectations moved from negative to positive territory in November for the first time in six months, according to Fannie Mae’s November National Housing Survey. Respondents to the survey said they expect home prices to increase by 0.2 percent over next year. “Though their home price expectations have become slightly positive, consumers remain concerned about the direction of the economy and continue to view their household finances as being relatively flat,” said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “Most Americans expect no improvement in their personal financial situation in the next 12 months and will likely remain wary about undertaking the significant financial obligation associated with homeownership until their view of their income, expenses, and job security heads in a more positive direction.”

Highlights from the survey include:

• Nearly a quarter (22 percent) of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next year (up 3 percentage points since last month), while 22 percent say they expect home prices to decline, down 1 percentage point since last month. Fifty-three percent say prices will stay the same, a 2 percentage point drop from October.
• Approximately one-third of Americans say that mortgage rates will go up over the next 12 months, down 3 percentage points from October and a return to the level seen in September.
• Sixty-eight percent of respondents say it is a good time to buy a home (down by 1 percentage point since last month), and just 10 percent say it is a good time to sell, unchanged from the previous two months.

Fannie, Freddie Mac complete nearly 2 million foreclosure-prevention actions

Foreclosure-prevention actions by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased in the third quarter of 2011, according to a report by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Since entering conservatorship in 2008, the GSEs have taken nearly 2 million foreclosure-prevention actions and completed 1 million loan modifications.
According to the FHFA report, the increase in completed foreclosure prevention activity in the third quarter was driven primarily by loan modifications and repayment plans. Two-thirds of all borrowers who received loan modifications in the third quarter had their monthly payments reduced by more than 20 percent. Additionally, the GSEs' cumulative refinancings through the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) increased 11 percent during the third quarter to nearly 928,600 loans.

Housing Industry Rebound:

After half a decade of withering sales and slumping prices, there are strong and diverse signs that the single-family housing market is poised for a rebound. In some metropolitan areas, the market has bottomed, with both sales and prices on the rise and foreclosures on the decline.

This contrarian — and largely overlooked — thesis flies in the face of the persistent gloom that has nagged the industry since 2007, when the subprime crisis flared. Industry analysts and players cite a number of reasons — some traditional (employment), others unique to the post-credit bubble era (foreclosures)  — for the long-awaited sea change. An analysis of industry and government data also support the forecast. “It has become increasingly apparent to us that the pieces for a housing rebound next year are beginning to fall into place,” declared Barclays Capital analyst Stephen Kim in a recent note to investors.

Proponents admit that the nascent rebound could easily be derailed, but stress that after years of government efforts to support sales and prices as well as the volatile impact of foreclosures, the market has regained a measure of normalcy.

“With the exception of really hard-hit markets, the vast majority is ready to turn around,” adds Jerry Howard, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, NAHB. "The Washington, D.C., area is not only ripe for recovery, they need to start building units.”
There’s been little conventional, however, about this housing slump, which is one reason it's had so many false bottoms. Among its many firsts — housing starts fell through 1 million annual units, foreclosures topped 2 million in three consecutive years, and home prices declined on a national basis.

The catalysts to recovery are mostly the same: for potential buyers, residential rents have now risen enough to consider buying; existing-home inventory is the lowest in five years, while that of new homes is at a 40-year low; affordability is at a record high; delinquencies have peaked; consumer confidence is on the rise ; and job growth is accelerating.mFor investors, with a continuation of the gold rally in question, real estate is beginning to look like a viable inflation hedge alternative, while rising rents mean greater profits. Finally, there’s the intangible fatigue with bad news, and a desire to end the negative feedback loop.

“We believe there is sizable housing demand that could be released into the market," says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, NAR. The NAR is forecasting existing home sales will rise 5 percent in both 2012 and 2013; prices will edge up 2 percent in each of those two years, then 4 percent in 2014. The NAHB is forecasting a 5.1-percent increase in new home sales and a 10-percent increase for new home starts in 2012.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

A turnaround in the housing market will require continued improvement in the job market.
The economy has created jobs 13 months in a row for a total of almost 1.9 million. Weekly jobless claims have been routinely below the key level of 400,000, and the national jobless rate is down to 8.6 percent.

There are already signs in some markets that an improving employment picture is boosting housing demand and sale prices. In cities such as Tampa, Fla., South Bend, Ind., Grand Rapids, Mich., Raleigh, N.C., Wichita, Kan., and Green Bay, Wis.., the median sales price of an existing single family home increased 1-2 percent in the third quarter, during which time the jobless rate and/or payrolls growth improved dramatically.

Even in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. metropolitan area — considered the epicenter of the foreclosure crisis a few years ago — prices were just 1.4 percent lower in the third quarter than the previous year. A new index by the NAHB and First American, the Improving Markets Index, IMI, launched in September, tracks housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. Thirty cities – including San Jose, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Winston-Salem, N.C. – are showing growth in permits, sales and employment.

In San Diego — where in the last year the jobless rate has fallen from 10.4 percent to 9.7 percent and 24,000 jobs have been added — home inventory is down to two months; in some areas of San Francisco (9.4 vs. 10.3 percent), it is one month. More broadly, 40 percent of all states showed existing home sale increases on both a quarterly and annual basis in the third quarter, according to National Association of Realtors data. That includes high foreclosure-rate states, such as California, Georgia, Michigan and Utah. All but six states showed double-digit gains year over year.

Help with a down payment

With most lenders requiring borrowers to put down at least 20 percent as a down payment – unless using an FHA or VA loan, or purchasing mortgage insurance – the best holiday gift some people might receive would be help with a down payment on a house.
Making sense of the story

• According to a survey by Trulia, the biggest barrier to buying a home these days is saving for the down payment. The survey, conducted over the summer, found that 51 percent of renters said coming up with money for the down payment was preventing them from buying, while 35 percent identified qualifying for a mortgage as the stumbling block.
  
  
• Under federal tax law, each individual is permitted to give money or valuables worth up to $13,000 to a single recipient in a calendar year. A married couple could jointly bestow up to $26,000 a year per recipient.
  
  
• According to one financial planner, there also is the option of lending a relative or close friend the money for the down payment, or the closing costs, then forgiving the loan in a future year. The recipient would have to pay interest on the loan until it was forgiven, at which point it would become a gift.
  
  
• Another way to help with the down payment is to pay other expenses, such as tuition, thereby freeing up money to make a home purchase. Gifts for educational or medical expenses are not subject to taxes, as long as they are paid directly to the educational or medical institution.
  
  
• However, prior to giving the money, gift-givers should consider their own financial picture, and they should make sure the recipient is responsible and not behind on other payments that could be subject to debt collection.

Stronger lure for prospective home buyers

With the monthly cost of owning a home more affordable now than at any point in the past 15 years, homeownership is becoming less expensive than renting in a growing number of cities.

Making sense of the story

• The Wall Street Journal’s third-quarter survey of housing-market conditions in 28 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas found that home values declined in all but five markets compared with the second quarter, according to data from Zillow Inc.
  
  
• Meanwhile, rent levels have risen briskly across the country and mortgage rates, hovering around 4 percent, are the lowest in six decades.
  
  
• As a result, monthly mortgage payments on the median priced home – including taxes and insurance – are lower than the average rent levels in 12 metro areas, according to data compiled by Marcus & Millichap.
  
  
• Homeownership also is looking more affordable because after several years of declines, apartment rents will rise approximately 4 percent this year, and rents are poised to pick up even more momentum across the country next year, according to Marcus & Millichap.
  
  
• Affordability could continue to improve as prices slide even lower in coming months. Price declines are likely because the share of “distressed” sales, including bank-owned foreclosures, tend to rise in the winter, when traditional sales activity cools.

Pending Home Sales Pop:

Potential home buyers came out of the woodwork in October, signing contracts to buy existing homes at a higher-than expected pace.

Pending home sales jumped 10.4 percent compared to September, according to the National Association of Realtors, with the biggest gains in the Midwest, up 24 percent. The Northeast also saw sizeable gains, as did the South. Only out West did buyers stay on the sidelines, with pending home sales there basically flat month to month.

“Home sales have been plodding along at a sub-par level while interest rates are hovering at record lows, and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who normally would have entered the market in recent years," said Realtor chief economist Lawrence Yun. "We hope this is indicates more buyers are taking advantage of the excellent affordability conditions.”

This data continues the string of positive housing data with New Home Sales up 1.3% on a monthly basis and Existing Home Sales up 13.5% on a yearly basis

California housing affordability rises in Q3

Housing affordability increased in 22 of the state’s 28 metropolitan areas in the third quarter, according to the California Building Industry Association’s Housing Opportunity Index (HOI)
On a statewide basis, the HOI found that a family earning the median income could have afforded 63.5 percent of the new and existing homes that were sold during the third quarter, up from 61.3 percent in the second quarter.

The San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin County metro area was once again California’s least-affordable metro area for the twelfth consecutive quarter, and second in the nation, with just 32.9 percent of the homes sold being affordable to a family earning the median income, up from 27.5 percent in the second quarter. Orange County was California’s second least-affordable market and fifth in the nation (43 percent), followed by Los Angeles County (45.1 percent) and Santa Cruz County (47 percent).

Congress reinstates FHA loan limit

Last week, the U.S. Congress passed a “minibus” appropriations measure that will continue to fund the government and includes a provision to reinstate the FHA loan limit in high-cost areas for two years. President Obama signed the measure into law Friday.
The higher Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA conforming loan limits of $729,750 expired Oct. 1, when it was reduced to $625,500. The passage of H.R. 2112 provides for an extension of FHA-insured mortgages at the higher level through December 2013. It also provides for a short-term extension of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) through Dec. 16, 2011. C.A.R. and NAR strongly urge Congress to work on a five-year NFIP reauthorization bill to provide certainty and avoid further disruption to real estate markets.

“C.A.R. is pleased the Senate and House were able to come to a reasonable compromise on extending the FHA loan limit to ensure affordable home financing for middle-class buyers,” said 2012 C.A.R. President LeFrancis Arnold. “However, we are disappointed that the Senate and House could not agree on increasing the loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, especially since the Senate bill included a premium on high-cost loans that protected U.S. taxpayers from footing the costs.”

C.A.R. and the NAR have long advocated making permanent higher loan limits.