Bull Market in Bonds Nearing an End?

Mortgage rates have seen historic lows due to a long-running bull market in bonds. Specifically, mortgage backed securities. Demand has far exceeded supply which has driven down mortgage rates. As demand starts to pull back, mortgage rates will begin to move upward.

Say goodbye to the longest bull market for bonds in history. The market is at a turning point, say portfolio managers—some of whom are running the nation’s largest bond funds. The reason: growing worries about inflation . While it is not a problem right now, there are several strong economic factors that typically lead to higher prices down the road.

Rates are already starting to rise, even without the Fed. This week, Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities saw a sharp sell-off, bringing yields—which move opposite to prices—to their highest level since October.

Rising yields, when coupled with inflation, are a double-whammy to the value of bonds.

With job growth comes purchasing power and pricing pressure on businesses and consumers. Yigal Jhirad, portfolio manager for Cohen & Steers, thinks this pressure is already underway.

While significant inflation and higher mortgage rates are still far down the road, it is clear that they are on the horizon. This is actually a good thing for housing. The housing market has always performed better in the "sweet spot" of mortgage rates which is in that 5.50% to 7.00% range.